How Obama Wins Ohio With Help Down Ticket
How strong Democratic Congressional candidates are going to help Barack Obama win in Ohio.
How did George W. Bush win Ohio in 2004? Karl Rove knew that the only way to neutralize record turnout in the cities was to rack up big wins in almost every single rural county. The strength of our congressional candidates in suburban and exurban districts is going to make that very difficult for Senator McCain.In 2004, incumbent Republican Ralph Regula received 67% of the vote in Ohio's 16th Congressional District, which has been in Republican control since 1951. President Bush received 57% in Medina, 65% in Ashland, and 62% in Wayne. The fact that there wasn't a serious Democrat challenging Regula in OH-16 gave President Bush and the Republican message a big advantage in 2004. Today, Ohio's 16th Congressional District is a much different story. Democratic challenger John Boccieri has an $182,076 cash on hand advantage over Republican Kirk Schuring in this open seat race. At minimum Boccieri is going to shave a few percent off of each county and his campaign hopes to do much better than that. As Boccieri works to register voters, debate the issues, and get out the vote it will make a big difference for Barack Obama come November.
We have 4 Congressional Districts in play in Ohio that were Republican strong holds in 2004 and have a new blue district (OH-18) from 2006.
Another district that is going to make a huge difference in this presidential cycle is Democrat Congressman Zach Space down in OH-18 (big blue district in the middle that was red in 2004). Space won his rural district in 2006. Currently, Space has $1,141,980 cash on hand and his Republican challenger has a meager $112,437. In 2004, George Bush won two counties in the district with over 60% of the vote and 3 counties with over 70% of the vote. Space's cash advantage is going to mean more Democrats turnout in the district. Again, those counties are going to move a minimum of a few percentage points Obama's way and that is going to make a big difference.
I use Ohio's 16th and 18th Congressional Districts to illustrate my point that as Democrats cut into safe Republican counties, the cumulative effect is going to start to move numbers for Barack Obama. Other Democrat candidates to watch include Driehaus in OH-1 and Wulsin in OH-2, who are both challenging incumbent Republican candidates. Many Republicans are holding out hope that Ohioans may turnout to vote for a Democratic Congressional Candidate, but won't vote for Obama. Maybe so, but Obama only needs to pick up a few percent in each of these districts to carry the state. Plus, there is no predicting how high turnout for Obama will be in safe Democratic districts. I think it will be through the roof.
See fundraising totals in all Ohio Districts
OH-1
U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Westwood):
$307,305 in 2ndQ, $1,311,547 cash on hand
State Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Price Hill):
$200,397 in 2ndQ, $631,440 cash on hand
OH-2
U.S. Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland):
$301,462 in 2ndQ, $393,028 cash on hand
Dr. Victoria Wulsin(D-Indian Hill):
$309,912 in 2ndQ, $378,084 cash on hand
Businessman David Krikorian (I):
$91,092 in 2ndQ, $131,445 cash on hand
OH-3
U.S. Rep. Michael Turner(R-Centerville):
$176,250 in 2ndQ, $596,171 cash on hand
Advertising Executive Jane Mitakides (D-Washington Twp):
$156,964 in 2ndQ, $130,566 cash on hand
OH-4
U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan(R-Urbana):
$627,924 in 2ndQ, $433,838 cash on hand
Labor union activist Mike Carroll (D-Mansfield)
$11,486 in 2ndQ, $2,298 cash on hand
OH-5
U.S. Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green):
$73,675 in 2ndQ, $76,921 cash on hand
Businessman George F. Mays (D-Norwalk):
No File Found
OH-6
U.S. Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville):
$609,691 in 2ndQ, $397,855 cash on hand
Deputy Recorder Richard Stobbs (R-Dillonvale):
No File Found
OH-7
State Sen. Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek):
$341,970 in 2ndQ, $361,244 cash on hand
Attorney Sharen Neuhardt (D-Yellow Springs):
$190,275 in 2ndQ, $108,408 cash on hand
OH-8
U.S. Rep. John Boehner (R-West Chester):
1,000,826 in 2ndQ, $2,263,643 cash on hand
U.S. Air Force veteran Nick Von Stein (D-Mason):
$3,279 in 2ndQ, $6,848 cash on hand
OH-9
U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo):
$77,135 in 2ndQ, $939,633 cash on hand
Electrician Bradley Leavitt (R-Toledo):
No File Found
OH-10
U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland):
$147,853 in 2ndQ, $506,235 cash on hand
Former state Rep. Jim Trakas (R-Independence):
$103,033 in 2ndQ, $87,451 cash on hand
Trainer and ex-property manager Paul Visokaj (I):
No File Found
OH-11
U.S. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Cleveland):
$177,816 in 2ndQ, $83,848 cash on hand
Thomas Pekarek (R):
No File Found
OH-12
U.S. Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R-Westerville):
$246,060 in 2ndQ, $866,855 cash on hand
Businessman David W. Robinson (D-Columbus):
$52,371 in 2ndQ, $19,976 cash on hand
OH-13
U.S. Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley Township):
$72,976 in 2ndQ, $188,693 cash on hand
David S. Potter (R):
No File Found
OH-14
U.S. Rep. Steven LaTourette (R-Chagrin Falls):
$333,813 in 2ndQ, $870,849 cash on hand
Former State Appellate Judge William O'Neill (D-South Russell):
$104,051 in 2ndQ, $46,541 cash on hand
OH-15
State Sen. Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington):
$428,922 in 2ndQ, $879,753 cash on hand
Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus):
$365,962 in 2ndQ, $1,163,267 cash on hand
Former state legislative analyst Don Elijah Eckhart (I-Galloway):
$5,598 in 2ndQ, $370 cash on hand
OH-16
State Sen. Kirk Schuring (R-Canton):
$329,525 in 2ndQ, $348,939 cash on hand
State Sen. John Boccieri (D-New Middletown):
$391,237 in 2ndQ, $531,015 cash on hand
OH-17
U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Niles):
$141,770 in 2ndQ, $424,293 cash on hand
Teacher Duane V. Grassell (R-Mogadore):
No File Found
OH-18
U.S. Rep. Zack Space (D-Dover):
$322,147 in 2ndQ, $1,141,980 cash on hand
Former Ohio Director of Agriculture Fred Dailey (R-Mt Vernon):
By Kyle - 7/17/2008
4 Comments:
Great overview, man. This is the type of stuff I'm admittedly clueless about. Very informative.
Again, as we argued, these congressional races are driven from the top down - not from the bottom up in a presidential election year. You cant really compare them to 2006.
To take your example, of OH-16. No one is going to the polls saying "I am going to vote for that Democrat for House and oh by the way I guess Ill vote for that Democrat for President too."
I live in Cincinnati and have a pretty good understanding of local politics (Volunteered a few times for a few city council candidates) and I honestly believe Steve Driehause has a serious shot at taking the congressional seat from Chabot. Driehause is a pro-life Democrat and actually went to the same high school as me, and he does pretty well appealing to the conservative masses here in Cincy. In 2007 my social justice class (Just graduated HS, going into college now Go bearcats!!!) we traveled up to the Ohio State House of Representatives and it was a really great time meeting him on a more personal level. We also met Ted Strickland and that was also a great time.
I'm not saying that Driehause is going to sweep Chabot by any means. The one thing which concerns me is aout once a month Steve Chabot does a "Town Hall Meeting" in Maryland right outside of DC and he calls tons of people here in Cincinnati and people just talk to him over the phone and ask him bull shit questions. I cringe every time he calls my house, and I listen just to see what he is talking about and it's usually nothing but Republican propaganda. There is no local politician I hate more than Steve Chabot, he's such a tool.
As far as Wulsin goes, she is damaged goods. Her district is ultra-conservative and this is her second time trying to make a run and I predict failure. I actually worked with her Campaign manager when I volunteered for a city council candidate and he even told me the chances weren't going to be good. But anything is possible, so we'll have to see. I would love for her to win but I live in the city of Cincinnati and that's not her district.
-Clayton
Clayton,
Awesome insight. It is interesting that you say that Driehause has a better chance than Wulsin because I think the DCCC has Wulsin targeted higher on the list. The fact that we have two quality candidates competing in these districts and making the incumbent Republicans spend money there is a great thing.
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