Or maybe it's Democrats like you Annie who won't leave it alone. Are you a Democrat or a Clinton-crat? Jeez. I haven't once chimed in with criticism directed towards your preferred candidate, but THE PRIMARY IS OVER. If you're not going to help, then just get out of the way.
Here is what FiveThirtyEight.com has to say about it.
I've also read speculation about how so many Obama supporters are younger, and thus only carry cell phones. I don't know that I qualify as "young" but I've been going the cell phone route exclusively for about the last 5 years, so that has to account for a bit of an Obama boost in almost any poll.
Still, this is a reminder that we have a ton more work to do. BSB had a similar post and that's where I found that FiveThirtyEight.com link.
BTW, I put a link in our sidebar that takes you to their site and throws a filter on it so that you only see Ohio-related posts. This is good for playing catchup if you haven't been there in a week or more.
It is way to early to be reading into polls. The candidates have not even had a debate yet. Ohio will be much closer than 10 points. The press is gushing over Obama and ignoring McCain right now. This should give BHO a slight bounce. That is if anyone is even paying attention. Most average Americans do not start paying attention to election coverage until after Labor Day. Don't worry Dems, barring a BHO meltdown(which seems more likely everytime he opens his mouth outside of a written speech) this is your year.
DJ, great article. I wonder if under sampling of cell phone users is over stated in that article because young people are less likely to be registered to vote and less likely to vote. I hope this election proves to be the year young people show up.
A legit concern Kyle...I was thinking the same thing. Although, until I read that article, I didn't realize some polls actually compensate for potentially low numbers from "cell-phone" voters. I'm sure they have fairly accurate scientific methods to calculate those numbers, but it still seems so speculative to me.
The young vote and the urban vote (two big "cell phone" voting blocks) need to show up big this election...if they do, we should be in good shape. Time will tell I guess. This only further supports the importance of the registration efforts being conducted by Obama campaign offices throughout the state right now. The more people we register now, the better our chances of getting that good turnout will be come November.
DJ, voter registration in the general is critical for Obama. His campaign has to have an advantage over 2004 because of the 50 state primary and the voter registration efforts that brought record turnout. That is something we owe Senator Clinton and her volunteers for helping with. Hopefully primary investment will pay off in November.
Yes, we all understand the silliness of the gas tax holiday, but "regular" voters don't. And if McCain continues to use persuasive language in his ads that make it look like Obama is for expensive gas, people hang on to that.
Don't forget that the overwhelming majority of voters say that television ads are the most important source of information about a candidate when they're deciding who to vote for!
I agree Annie...politics, like so many other areas of our lives these days, is dictated by marketing campaigns. Political campaigns aren't necessarily won or lost based on the issues, but instead, determined by which candidate does a better job marketing himself and his/her image.
Even issue debates are won and lost depending on the way they're marketed (here is where idiots like O'Reilly and the comedian Limbaugh really earn their money). They sell millions of people on one sided arguments. It kills me. They've even done unbelievable damage to the word "liberal." I mean, if this administration hasn't killed "conservative" what can we ever do to reclaim "liberal?"
You can see McCain heading towards Rovian politics already ("Obama would rather see us lose the war than lose the election" - even though he can't define "victory" and now ignores Malaki's suggestion that Obama's 16 month withdraw plan is a good idea). Our manic, tv/major media obsessed, attention span deprived society can't handle more than short little catch phrases and sound bites. I thought Rovian politics met their demise with Dem wins in '06, but they're getting another shot in '08 (that's why it annoys me so much that Hillary supporters are still stuck in time...we are facing bigger problems/issues).
Our political (marketing) campaigns frustrate me to no end, but I think Obama has an edge this election cycle (his opponent is McCain, who isn't exactly tv friendly, and Obama's political "newness" (relatively speaking) allows him to keep from coming across as fake as some other career politicians might).
I'm looking forward to the contrast the debates are going to allow for (and I think the Hillary debates inevitably helped prepare Obama for what McCain will throw at him). More impressive though will just be the physical contrast Obama and McCain will present. I'm guessing it's going to be reminiscent of Kennedy/Nixon.
You're right too Kyle about the impact the primary inevitably had on introducing a campaign presence in each state that early, and registering so many voters. I'm sure there are still many more that could/should be registered, so here is hoping we get to them.
DJ, So you agree with the second Annie? The one that criticizes voters for falling for such slick Marketing gimmicks. But disagree with the first Annie who criticized Obama for NOT supporting it based on its popularity with the voters who know best?
I don't think the gas tax holiday gimmick was slick at all...as a matter of fact, I think that bullsh*t gimmick was a big fat meatball Obama crushed out of the park. Certain issues/arguments aren't going to fly this time around...Obama was able to use that GTH crap to buff his "anti-politician/anti-Washington" message. He rightly pointed out that the GTH thing is what Washington his been doing for decades...a meaningless political stunt that completely fails to address any longterm solutions.
There are definitely marketing strategies to be played, but that is not one of them. I think realizing the flag pin thing isn't a fight worth fighting was the right move (he sports one now at almost every public event). I also think the FISA vote was probably the right thing to do (as much as I hate to admit it). Even courting moderate Christians/religious voters with a willingness to work with them is the right thing to do.
I think Webb's move with the GI Bill was as politically suave a move as there possibly could be (I would have liked to see him as VP...too late now I guess). The proper marketing/message is going to take plenty of finesse, but this campaign is quite capable.
Let me clarify; yes, there are two Annies. There is the voter Annie that has candidate preferences and idealistic ideas of how the world should work, who should run it, and what they'll do when they're in charge. There is also the political science professor Annie that knows the stats, research, and theories behind why candidates do what they do. Sometimes I post as #1, and sometimes I post as #2.
The gas tax holiday was a silly issue to talk about when there are bigger fish to fry like healthcare, Iraq, education, the economy, etc. But, it was one of those proposals that gives tangibility to grandeous ideas. Even a measly $30 rebate can be a mighty carrot, when advertised without the stick. Its all about marketing and packaging. Could I personally (Annie #1)have used an extra $30, yes. Did I think that it would help Hillary to support it, yes. Did I think that the stupid proposal would have any long term benefits for energy or the economy??? An overwhelming NO. And clearly, the McCain ad is a carefully constructed message that will play well with voters that care more about the 30 bucks than long term economic and energy goals.
And seriously folks, if you're gonna try to play "gotcha" with every freaking thing I say, this whole "intellecutal exchange about politics" thing becomes less intellectual and more tedious-- real quick.
Annie, in this situation, I would normally agree with you on the gotcha games, but the truth is your initial jab at the beginning of the comments section was ill-advised. You sort of played your own version of the gotcha game. The idea that Hillary would have had an easier time smacking McBush around is neither verifiable, nor relevent.
It wouldn't hurt to think about why you supported the elimination of the gas tax when Hillary was for it. Maybe you thought it was necessary for Hillary to beat Obama, or maybe you thought that either democratic candidate could have benefitted by moving to the center on that issue.
Either way, I think ending a tax on fossil fuels is the worst thing our government could do to remedy the problems caused by fossil fuels. That issue simply shouldn't be negotiable. Democratics cannot claim to be a principled party and give ground on that issue.
Obama is likely struglling more with identity politics than anything else, and Hillary likely would have struggled too.
Thank you Jeff...I would never advise a political candidate to do this...but I support more tax on gas, not less tax. How are we ever going to get off gas (America's most dangerous drug), when we're considering this bogus GTH? The problem is, the comedian limbaugh et.al., have decided to preach "drill more" to their congregation, and now the sheep has spread near and wide with that tortuous talking point. God, I can't stand how short sighted that is. Even die hard Republicans like Boone Pickens knows how ass backwards that is (not to mention environmentally irresponsible - as the recent Mississippi/New Orleans spill has again evidenced).
We're a little off topic now, but there is a fine line b/w candidates taking certain stances to play to the middle (flag pins, courting religious moderates, and even the FISA vote), and candidates blatantly selling out Americans, and what is in this country's best interest for political capital. It's not the difference here anyway. I seriously doubt this poll's results have much, if anything to do with McCain's stance on the GTH (maybe the "drill more" crowd is gaining momentum, but the GTH has little, if any, weight). I think it actually hurt Hillary more than it helped helped her, but I don't want to get in a debate about what happened in the Primary.
here's what a brain fart idea it is/was. why would mccain and clinton voice support for dumping the gas tax when they could, instead, tell ppl that if they want to save money, they could slow down and follow the speed limit. the gov estimates that for each 5mph over 60mph you slow down, you can assume you'll save 30 cents a gallon (this varies, of course).
i will be the first to admit that i don't do everything i could to save gas. there are ppl out there that do much more, and those that do much less. i'm not a saint on this. but i have not complained about the price of gas, either.
32 Comments:
What could have happened in the past week to cause this dramatic a shift? I hope they just got a bad sample and the other polls show the race close.
Sounds like bullshit...or there is a shipment on the block
Hmmm, that's weird. Bet Hill-dogg would be smacking McBush around. =) Okay, okay, I won't start.
Do you think its the gas-tax holiday advertising blitz McCain's been doing?
Oh wait, they couldn't have used that against Hillary either...
Or maybe it's Democrats like you Annie who won't leave it alone. Are you a Democrat or a Clinton-crat? Jeez. I haven't once chimed in with criticism directed towards your preferred candidate, but THE PRIMARY IS OVER. If you're not going to help, then just get out of the way.
Here is what FiveThirtyEight.com has to say about it.
I've also read speculation about how so many Obama supporters are younger, and thus only carry cell phones. I don't know that I qualify as "young" but I've been going the cell phone route exclusively for about the last 5 years, so that has to account for a bit of an Obama boost in almost any poll.
Still, this is a reminder that we have a ton more work to do. BSB had a similar post and that's where I found that FiveThirtyEight.com link.
Sorry, here is that link again.
Here is what FiveThirtyEight.com has to say about it.
DJ,
I am a FiveThirtyEight addict.
BTW, I put a link in our sidebar that takes you to their site and throws a filter on it so that you only see Ohio-related posts. This is good for playing catchup if you haven't been there in a week or more.
"Or maybe it's Democrats like you Annie who won't leave it alone. Are you a Democrat or a Clinton-crat"
yes god forbid she look at both candidates since she obviously has been indoctrinated into your cult of
Annie ignore the tribe of people that feel you somehow owe your vote to the candidate they support.
It is way to early to be reading into polls. The candidates have not even had a debate yet. Ohio will be much closer than 10 points. The press is gushing over Obama and ignoring McCain right now. This should give BHO a slight bounce. That is if anyone is even paying attention. Most average Americans do not start paying attention to election coverage until after Labor Day. Don't worry Dems, barring a BHO meltdown(which seems more likely everytime he opens his mouth outside of a written speech) this is your year.
Speaking of FiveThirtyEight...here is a story they just did about the cell phone issue I mentioned in my earlier comment. Interesting stuff.
DJ, great article. I wonder if under sampling of cell phone users is over stated in that article because young people are less likely to be registered to vote and less likely to vote. I hope this election proves to be the year young people show up.
A legit concern Kyle...I was thinking the same thing. Although, until I read that article, I didn't realize some polls actually compensate for potentially low numbers from "cell-phone" voters. I'm sure they have fairly accurate scientific methods to calculate those numbers, but it still seems so speculative to me.
The young vote and the urban vote (two big "cell phone" voting blocks) need to show up big this election...if they do, we should be in good shape. Time will tell I guess. This only further supports the importance of the registration efforts being conducted by Obama campaign offices throughout the state right now. The more people we register now, the better our chances of getting that good turnout will be come November.
it's just a poll. chill, dude.
need we go back any further than the before the primaries were held when mccain didn't stand a chance and clinton was a shoe in?
and i think annie was just kidding around, and that she knows that the gas tax hoiday idea is a stupid one.
oh crap. that last one was me, not annie. her's was the last paragraph i worked on before submitting.
sorry :)
DJ, voter registration in the general is critical for Obama. His campaign has to have an advantage over 2004 because of the 50 state primary and the voter registration efforts that brought record turnout. That is something we owe Senator Clinton and her volunteers for helping with. Hopefully primary investment will pay off in November.
Whoo-hoo!
Off to Atlantic City!
Safe travels Russ.
Yes, we all understand the silliness of the gas tax holiday, but "regular" voters don't. And if McCain continues to use persuasive language in his ads that make it look like Obama is for expensive gas, people hang on to that.
Don't forget that the overwhelming majority of voters say that television ads are the most important source of information about a candidate when they're deciding who to vote for!
Annie,
With all due respect, you say:
"Yes, we all understand the silliness of the gas tax holiday, but regular voters don't."
Silliness?
In May you criticized Obama for NOT supporting it, saying:
"I could use an extra $30 bucks. I can think of a lot that I'd rather do with it than sink it into my gas tank, and I think most of middle America would agree with me."
It's hard to tell if you're using the GTH's popularity with middle-America as evidence it should pass, or mocking middle America for falling for it.
Wow, Bob, you remember past comments about as well as my girlfriend remembers my past blunders. Well done!
BTW can't wait for your next post. I'm eager to hear the difference between equality and equal oppertunity (and I don't mean in a legal sense)
I agree Annie...politics, like so many other areas of our lives these days, is dictated by marketing campaigns. Political campaigns aren't necessarily won or lost based on the issues, but instead, determined by which candidate does a better job marketing himself and his/her image.
Even issue debates are won and lost depending on the way they're marketed (here is where idiots like O'Reilly and the comedian Limbaugh really earn their money). They sell millions of people on one sided arguments. It kills me. They've even done unbelievable damage to the word "liberal." I mean, if this administration hasn't killed "conservative" what can we ever do to reclaim "liberal?"
You can see McCain heading towards Rovian politics already ("Obama would rather see us lose the war than lose the election" - even though he can't define "victory" and now ignores Malaki's suggestion that Obama's 16 month withdraw plan is a good idea). Our manic, tv/major media obsessed, attention span deprived society can't handle more than short little catch phrases and sound bites. I thought Rovian politics met their demise with Dem wins in '06, but they're getting another shot in '08 (that's why it annoys me so much that Hillary supporters are still stuck in time...we are facing bigger problems/issues).
Our political (marketing) campaigns frustrate me to no end, but I think Obama has an edge this election cycle (his opponent is McCain, who isn't exactly tv friendly, and Obama's political "newness" (relatively speaking) allows him to keep from coming across as fake as some other career politicians might).
I'm looking forward to the contrast the debates are going to allow for (and I think the Hillary debates inevitably helped prepare Obama for what McCain will throw at him). More impressive though will just be the physical contrast Obama and McCain will present. I'm guessing it's going to be reminiscent of Kennedy/Nixon.
You're right too Kyle about the impact the primary inevitably had on introducing a campaign presence in each state that early, and registering so many voters. I'm sure there are still many more that could/should be registered, so here is hoping we get to them.
DJ,
So you agree with the second Annie? The one that criticizes voters for falling for such slick Marketing gimmicks. But disagree with the first Annie who criticized Obama for NOT supporting it based on its popularity with the voters who know best?
Me, too.
I don't think the gas tax holiday gimmick was slick at all...as a matter of fact, I think that bullsh*t gimmick was a big fat meatball Obama crushed out of the park. Certain issues/arguments aren't going to fly this time around...Obama was able to use that GTH crap to buff his "anti-politician/anti-Washington" message. He rightly pointed out that the GTH thing is what Washington his been doing for decades...a meaningless political stunt that completely fails to address any longterm solutions.
There are definitely marketing strategies to be played, but that is not one of them. I think realizing the flag pin thing isn't a fight worth fighting was the right move (he sports one now at almost every public event). I also think the FISA vote was probably the right thing to do (as much as I hate to admit it). Even courting moderate Christians/religious voters with a willingness to work with them is the right thing to do.
I think Webb's move with the GI Bill was as politically suave a move as there possibly could be (I would have liked to see him as VP...too late now I guess). The proper marketing/message is going to take plenty of finesse, but this campaign is quite capable.
So to answer your question Bob...yeah. We're on the same page.
By the way, you can stream the Berlin speech here. If you're not in front of a tv.
David,
Thanks, I tossed a feed up.
Let me clarify; yes, there are two Annies. There is the voter Annie that has candidate preferences and idealistic ideas of how the world should work, who should run it, and what they'll do when they're in charge. There is also the political science professor Annie that knows the stats, research, and theories behind why candidates do what they do. Sometimes I post as #1, and sometimes I post as #2.
The gas tax holiday was a silly issue to talk about when there are bigger fish to fry like healthcare, Iraq, education, the economy, etc. But, it was one of those proposals that gives tangibility to grandeous ideas. Even a measly $30 rebate can be a mighty carrot, when advertised without the stick. Its all about marketing and packaging. Could I personally (Annie #1)have used an extra $30, yes. Did I think that it would help Hillary to support it, yes. Did I think that the stupid proposal would have any long term benefits for energy or the economy??? An overwhelming NO. And clearly, the McCain ad is a carefully constructed message that will play well with voters that care more about the 30 bucks than long term economic and energy goals.
And seriously folks, if you're gonna try to play "gotcha" with every freaking thing I say, this whole "intellecutal exchange about politics" thing becomes less intellectual and more tedious-- real quick.
Gasoline prices may have surpassed the weather as the number one small talk topic in America.
Annie,
You're forcing me to be blunt now.
This is not complicated:
In May, you defended the Gas Tax Holiday.
In July, you criticized the Gas Tax Holiday.
Nothing has changed except which candidates are hanging their hats on it. This is the telltale sign of a political-animal at work.
I'm sorry that consistent, principled stances are so "tedious." This should be a bit of a red flag, no?
Annie, in this situation, I would normally agree with you on the gotcha games, but the truth is your initial jab at the beginning of the comments section was ill-advised. You sort of played your own version of the gotcha game. The idea that Hillary would have had an easier time smacking McBush around is neither verifiable, nor relevent.
It wouldn't hurt to think about why you supported the elimination of the gas tax when Hillary was for it. Maybe you thought it was necessary for Hillary to beat Obama, or maybe you thought that either democratic candidate could have benefitted by moving to the center on that issue.
Either way, I think ending a tax on fossil fuels is the worst thing our government could do to remedy the problems caused by fossil fuels. That issue simply shouldn't be negotiable. Democratics cannot claim to be a principled party and give ground on that issue.
Obama is likely struglling more with identity politics than anything else, and Hillary likely would have struggled too.
Thank you Jeff...I would never advise a political candidate to do this...but I support more tax on gas, not less tax. How are we ever going to get off gas (America's most dangerous drug), when we're considering this bogus GTH? The problem is, the comedian limbaugh et.al., have decided to preach "drill more" to their congregation, and now the sheep has spread near and wide with that tortuous talking point. God, I can't stand how short sighted that is. Even die hard Republicans like Boone Pickens knows how ass backwards that is (not to mention environmentally irresponsible - as the recent Mississippi/New Orleans spill has again evidenced).
We're a little off topic now, but there is a fine line b/w candidates taking certain stances to play to the middle (flag pins, courting religious moderates, and even the FISA vote), and candidates blatantly selling out Americans, and what is in this country's best interest for political capital. It's not the difference here anyway. I seriously doubt this poll's results have much, if anything to do with McCain's stance on the GTH (maybe the "drill more" crowd is gaining momentum, but the GTH has little, if any, weight). I think it actually hurt Hillary more than it helped helped her, but I don't want to get in a debate about what happened in the Primary.
Eyes on the prize...full speed ahead.
here's what a brain fart idea it is/was. why would mccain and clinton voice support for dumping the gas tax when they could, instead, tell ppl that if they want to save money, they could slow down and follow the speed limit. the gov estimates that for each 5mph over 60mph you slow down, you can assume you'll save 30 cents a gallon (this varies, of course).
i will be the first to admit that i don't do everything i could to save gas. there are ppl out there that do much more, and those that do much less. i'm not a saint on this. but i have not complained about the price of gas, either.
mccain and clinton were tools on this one.
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